Thursday, January 15, 2015

Real changes in Obamacare coming, analyst says

Last year's GOP efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act were mostly political theater,  but expect to see this year's Republican-dominated Congress make significant changes,  College of Charleston Professor Jordan Ragusa writes in the Christian Science Monitor's DC Decoder.

"Don’t be surprised to see Republicans succeed in the 114th Congress modifying or even repealing some elements of the Affordable Care Act this session. In fact, I think it’s an inevitability,"  Ragusa writes.

I see a lot of forecasts about repeal and/or modification,  many of which are based on the writers' beliefs about the act dubbed Obamacare.  Ragusa seems to be a genuine Congressional process wonk who teaches courses about Congress and writes a blog called Rule 22,  a title based on a Senate rule regarding filibuster.

Regardless of the political passions swirling around the ACA,  full repeal of any complex legislation is rare,  he writes.  Thus,  last year's repeal votes were mostly about staking out a position,  rather than changing the law.

But this year's session started with House bills to modify specific parts of the act,  by exempting veterans from the employer mandate tally and increasing the number of hours workers can put in without being eligible for mandatory coverage from employers. That approach has a much bigger chance of success,  Ragusa says.

"What’s important here is that, even if Republicans are successful in their repeals efforts, it’s likely that major elements of Obamacare will remain in place. Indeed, some aspects of the law are incredibly popular," he adds.

So there's good news and bad for both parties. Ragusa also notes that an analysis of repeal trends in all types of landmark legislation since the 1950s indicates that the peak risk comes 10 years after passage.  That would be four years from now.  Next week, he says,  he'll post more about specific factors affecting the chances of repeal.


Anonymous said...

Why clean up Obamas/Dems/Grubers mess for them??? They shoved it down our throats with bold faced lies and no transparency so expose this bill in all its glory. Make them answer for their arrogance.

Bussta Brown said...

Don't understand your definition of "shoved it down our throats" other than political rhetoric, but forbidding insurance companies from using their popular "preexisting condition excuse" to deny claims, can be shoved down my throat anyway.

And I'm sure that parents love being able to keep their college age kids on their insurance a little longer.

And last but not least, I'm sure that persons who did not have insurance coverage for years, appreciate their ability to now have affordable health care coverage.

So Obamacare as it was termed to disparage the Act has now become a popular reference to the bill. So imagine that, years after Mr. Obama is no longer in office there will be a constant reminder that he, Mr. Obama, cared about the people.

Anonymous said...

Shoved down your throats? The health care bill was debated for a full year--plenty of time for the far right to try and find common ground! Furthermore, it was based off conservative principles and the heart of the bill was based off RomneyCare in Mass.

It's not the best health care law ever, but it's a heck of a lot better than what we had before. To deny the fact is to deny reality.

Anonymous said...

Looks like all the ivory tower Harvard pinheads who endorsed ACA now are all in a tizzy since it applies to THEM.

Why no coverage of this, ADH? Are you being muzzled by your ProPublica funding?

"Members of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, the heart of the 378-year-old university, voted overwhelmingly in November to oppose changes that would require them and thousands of other Harvard employees to pay more for health care. The university says the increases are in part a result of the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act, which many Harvard professors championed."

Simple question for ADH:

How is something AFFORDABLE if it COSTS MORE?

If you can't answer that, you need to QUIT and let someone HONEST take over the health care beat.

Anonymous said...

If it's so great, you guys pay my increased, unaffordable insurance bill.
Health insurance for just the two of us is now DOUBLE our monthly mortgage. What is "affordable" about that?

Ann Doss Helms said...

That's an interesting article. I have written quite a bit about most of those trends -- rising costs, some of them caused by the ACA and some predating it, employers shifting costs to employees, etc. -- as they're playing out in NC. But Harvard? No. I still work for The Charlotte Observer (Kaiser Family Foundation grant, Pro Publica not involved). And at the risk of sounding parochial, that's not in our coverage area.

I do think it's amusing that the Harvard profs, who apparently had a much sweeter deal than most of us, are miffed at feeling the same pinch we've been feeling for years.

Anonymous said...

Bussta Brown - I HAD affordable insurance for me and my 3 kids. But since it has tripled, I CAN'T afford it and it will now have to pay the tax WITHOUT having insurance.

So I guess that means Obama didn't care about US...

Thomas said...

My premiums went up 260% when Obamacare kicked in.
Obama screws the middle class.

Larry said...

Those Republicans are only taking the dead cat the democrats threw over the fence and throwing it back over the fence.

Yes the Republicans did not bring it back to life, nor did they have it groomed.

It was not because they hated dead cats, it is just not their dead cat and should have been taken to vet before it died for more care by its owners the democrats.

Sorry folks do not see it as it is, but this thing was DOA from the offset.

And before you say anything the Republicans had a plan, and it included limits on Law Suits.

And for some reason the democrats did not want that very major piece that is going to have to be in any new laws.

I guess the fact obama and the democrats get most of their funding from the lawyers and law firms had nothing to do with this at all.

Oh look it up yourself